Odds of Someone Having COVID-19 at an Event in Your Parish
The Georgia Institute of Technology, Biological Sciences Department has released a map that estimates the chances of someone who would test positive for COVID-19 in different sized gatherings.
The website "provides interactive context to assess the risk that one or more individuals infected with COVID-19 are present in an event of various sizes", and can be broken down by state or parish.
For instance, according to current data, if you go to an event in Lafayette Parish with 24 other people, there is an 86% chance there will be someone in attendance who tests positive for the coronavirus. If there are only 10 people present, that risk drops to 55%.
But, still in Lafayette Parish, if you go to an event (or bar, restaurant, store, etc) where there are 50 people present or more, the chance that there is someone there who would test positive for the coronavirus jumps to at least 98%.
Again, the map is interactive: you can click on "Event Size" to change the number of people in attendance. If you set it to the "50 People" level, there is no parish in Acadiana that has less than a 90% chance of an infected person being present.
Viewing a map like this really drives home the importance of everyone wearing a mask and practice social distancing and proper handwashing.
(Chande, A.T., Gussler, W., Harris, M., Lee, S., Rishishwar, L., Jordan, I.K., Andris, C.M., and Weitz, J.S. 'Interactive COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool', URL http://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/)