Louisiana Lands Three Cities on ‘Most Likely to Be Devastated by Hurricane’ List
Three Louisiana cities out of 15 on this list aren't what any of us want to see but, it's important to understand the use of the word "devastated" here and its meaning for this list.
With the 2021 Hurricane Season officially underway, all of us in Louisiana have our collective eyes sharply watching the Gulf. CoreLogic.com has released their 2021 Hurricane Report which includes the 15 cities they believe are more likely to be devastated by a hurricane this season, and Louisiana, unfortunately, has three on the list.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting 13 to 20 named storms for 2021. Of the 13 to 20, 6 to 10 could become hurricanes, and of those 3 to 5 major hurricanes intensifying to a Category 3 or higher.
While NOAA doesn't provide forecasts predicting what parts of the U.S. could be hit the hardest, Corelogic.com does.
Corelogic.com compiles their list using the information from NOAA and by using something they call the “reconstruction cost value” which is based on "the cost to replace a structure that has been completely destroyed" according to 247wallst.com.
So, do the people at corelogic.com have a crystal ball where they can see what cities will be hit by a hurricane this season? Not that I know of, but let's take a look at the use of the word "devastated" here and understand why they've chosen the cities they have.
What Do They Mean By Devastated?
As mentioned above, corelogic.com has compiled their list using their “reconstruction cost value” which is based on how much it would cost to replace a structure that has been completely destroyed by a hurricane.
From corelogic.com -
This covers the cost of structures, but not the lots they sit on. The primary focus of the dollar amounts are single-family homes. The forecast covers the 15 metropolitan areas most at risk.
So before we freak out over Louisiana having three cities on the list of "Cities Most Likely to Be Devastated by Hurricane" let's keep in mind, the word "Devastated" is referring to the potential cost of damages to a city if it gets hit by a hurricane in 2021.
They're not saying the cities on the list are in imminent danger. I mean, I guess they sort of are, but I think you know what I'm trying to say.
No. 1 on the list is...New York. Obviously, New York very rarely deals with hurricanes, but if a hurricane did travel their way you can imagine the amount of damage they would suffer.
247wallst.com adds -
Population densities in these metro areas affect risk assessment. A lower category hurricane in a densely-populated metro area is likely to do much more damage than a higher category storm in a less-densely-populated area.
New Orleans takes the No. 4 spot on the list, Lafayette lands at No. 14 and Baton Rouge takes No. 15.
You can read more about the ideology used to compile this list over at 247wallst.com.