NOAA to Release Hurricane Forecast for 2023 Today
Lake Charles Louisiana is still reeling from a double dose of tropical madness in 2020. The New Orleans area is still licking its wounds from Hurricane Ida in 2021. And all along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast residents are keeping a watchful eye on the calendar. It's almost Hurricane Season again.
June 1 is when our daily dose of summertime anxiety will officially be interspersed with speculation and hope that "we won't get one" this year. That's the official start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, although there was a brief brush with a potential tropical trouble spot in the Caribbean Sea earlier this week before the season actually begins.
So far, the major forecast outlets that offer a pre-season look at tropical weather have all been predicting an average or below-average season for 2023. The activity predicted is certainly well below the forecasts that were issued in 2020, 2021, and even last year.
Today, NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will release their outlook for the upcoming tropical season. The news conference to announce this year's forecast will begin at 10 am Louisiana time. And quite frankly, we don't expect NOAA's official outlook to vary too far from the Accu-Weather or Colorado State forecasts.
The CSU Outlook is calling for 13 named storms. Six of those storms will reach hurricane status. Two of those hurricanes will grow strong enough to be considered major hurricanes. All of those numbers are below the seasonal averages of the last twenty years.
Most tropical forecasters see the evolution of an El Nino weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean over the next few months. El Nino years tend to create below-average activity in the tropical Atlantic Basin. The El Nino pattern usually creates stronger winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere that inhibit the formation of tropical systems in the Atlantic.
Of course, it only takes one hurricane to make it a bad hurricane season. Let's hope that all the hurricanes that form stay well out to sea and no one in the Gulf South has to experience the joy of getting help from FEMA.
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