Louisiana Long-Range Forecast Predicts First ‘Cool Snap’ of Fall

Nowhere else in the world do the institutions of science and hope collide more than in Louisiana. Louisiana people are spiritual by nature. That means we are almost always hopeful about things turning out for the best. It seems like the only time we aren't as hopeful as we normally are is when science rains on our parade.

And with a forecast full of potential all-time high temperatures the thought of rain on a parade, a patio, and a small portion of the backyard, would be welcome by just about all of us in Louisiana. But for that, we're going to need "hope" over the next few days because "science" says, it's not going to rain in most places.

As you can see by the map from the National Weather Service above, Louisiana is not the only place it's going to be hot today. In fact, the entire Mississippi River Valley appears to be right in the middle of the nation's worst temperatures today.

And those looking for relief from the heat in Louisiana will need to look further down the road to find a respite from the scorching rays of the August sun. Last week, we brought you the official forecast for Fall from the National Weather Service. Here's what the official US Government forecast suggests we will see heading into September, October, and November.

But when will Louisiana get that "first taste of gumbo weather"? We did some snooping around and the closest thing we could find to a "cool snap" that any forecast service was offering was in the forecast presented by the Old Farmer's Almanac.

Now for those of you who scoff at the Old Farmer's Almanac and its ability to predict weather phenomena. I will direct your attention to Tropical Storm Harold which just made landfall in South Texas. Only the Old Farmers Almanac predicted a tropical entity in the Gulf of Mexico during this week in August. It's pretty uncanny how close some of their forecasts are.

So, what does the Old Farmer's Almanac say about a "cool snap" for Louisiana? The best indication we can find comes for the week of September 24th through September 30th. The OFE outlook suggests a "few showers and cool north, sunny and warm south".

So, it looks like we have about a month before anyone will need long sleeves or a light jacket. You should note that we are simply talking about when "cooler than normal" temperatures are most likely to make an appearance in Louisiana. We should note the "real cold" won't arrive in the state until Thanksgiving or later. In fact, the average first frost date along I-10 is November 26th. It's November 15th for those along the I-20 corridor. 

Meanwhile, the record heat and forecast highs of 100 degrees or more will likely be the rule through at least the end of August and perhaps into the first few days of September and the Labor Day Weekend. Be careful in the heat and let's hope the Old Farmers Almanac is as good at predicting cold fronts as they are at predicting tropical storms.