Tropical Storm Rafael Forms in Caribbean, Could Impact Louisiana Later This Week

LAFAYETTE, La. (KPEL News) - Tropical Storm Rafael has formed in the Caribbean and is expected to intensify into a hurricane by Tuesday, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

With Rafael’s projected path currently on track to potentially impact Louisiana, residents are urged to stay vigilant and prepare for a possible late-season storm.

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Rafael’s Current Location and Strength

As of Monday afternoon, Rafael was located about 175 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, moving north at 9 mph.

The storm began as Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 and was officially named Rafael on Sunday. It’s now the 17th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs until November 30.

Will Rafael Reach Louisiana?

While it’s still too early to predict Rafael’s exact path, current forecasts suggest that the storm could make its way toward the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week. Louisiana residents should closely monitor updates, as Rafael has the potential to bring heavy rains, strong winds, and storm surge if it tracks toward the state.

The NHC has issued a tropical storm watch for parts of the lower and middle Florida Keys, indicating that areas of Florida and the Southeast U.S. could feel Rafael’s impact by mid-week. However, the forecast for the Gulf Coast remains uncertain, and residents along the Louisiana coast are encouraged to stay prepared.

Watches and Warnings in the Caribbean

Ahead of Rafael’s expected intensification, a hurricane warning has been issued for the Cayman Islands, and Jamaica is under a tropical storm warning. In Cuba, a hurricane watch has been posted for several provinces, while other areas are under a tropical storm watch.

The storm is expected to pass near Jamaica late Monday, then move over or near the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, likely as a hurricane. Rafael is projected to approach western Cuba by Wednesday.

Heavy Rainfall and Potential Flooding

Rafael is forecast to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain across the western Caribbean, with some areas, especially in Jamaica, receiving up to 9 inches. This heavy rainfall raises the risk of flash flooding and mudslides in parts of Jamaica and Cuba.

Additionally, the Cayman Islands could see a storm surge of up to 3 feet, and minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica.

Louisiana Residents Should Prepare

With the peak of hurricane season behind us, late-season storms like Rafael can still bring significant impacts to the Gulf Coast. Louisiana residents are advised to review their hurricane preparedness plans, especially with the potential for Rafael to strengthen into a hurricane and approach the region.

As Rafael’s track becomes clearer in the coming days, we’ll provide further updates. For now, Louisiana should be on alert for any potential shifts in Rafael’s path that could bring it closer to the state.

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Stay tuned to local forecasts and the National Hurricane Center for the latest information as this storm develops.