Tropical Models Suggest The Gulf is ‘About to Get Busy’

(KMDL-FM) If you've lived for a while in Lake Charles, Lafayette, Morgan City, or Houma on Louisiana's Gulf Coast. Or if you've called a place in Galveston, Corpus Christi, or Victoria, Texas home, then you probably know about "prime time" when it comes to the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

That graphic could also be a great indicator of how anxiety levels along the Gulf Coast are expected to grow over the next six to eight weeks as well. Prime Time, as those in the weather world like to call it, is the four weeks that are either side of September 10th.

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What makes September 10th so important is its history. Based on historical data, the 10th day of the 9th month is the statistical peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. And, almost as if Mother Nature is reading our minds, the tropics are really starting to get active as we move deeper into August.

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We have already seen four named storms this tropical season. Tropical Storm Dexter just fizzled out yesterday. There are also two tropical waves currently being scrutinized by forecasters from the National Hurricane Center. Neither of those waves is expected to create an issue for Louisiana and the Gulf Coast.

However, if you run the tropical models in their "long-range" modes, you can see some of those models are "developing" what would appear to be a strong storm system in the Gulf in about two weeks.

Here's where I remind you that long-range forecasts are not known for their accuracy. And we also remind you that forecast models are not official forecasts, so what's being shown to us to show to you is speculation. Still, when these model runs keep developing a weather system in the same geographical area, there is usually some "fire" where we've been seeing the "smoke".

That's a graphic from the 0000Z Run of the Global Forecast System Model. That model is highly regarded by National Weather Service Forecasters. As you can see, it is showing an intense system in the northern Gulf on or about August 22.

Previous runs of this same model have developed that storm system deeper in the Gulf south of Louisiana's coast, while other runs have a system developing but turning to the north before it reaches the Gulf from the Atlantic Ocean. So this model solution is far from certainty.

Which is why you'll want to keep in touch with us over the next two weeks as we watch this potential threat for the northern Gulf Coast. Of course, the easiest way to do that is to add our App to your home screen. 

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Just remember, the next eight weeks, let's say through mid-October, are when Louisiana and the Gulf Coast are most likely to face a tropical threat of some kind. Let's hope we don't, but if we do, we will be prepared. You are prepared, right?