Highlights

• Three named storms have formed: Andrea, Barry, and Chantal, with Chantal making landfall in South Carolina on July 6
• Season activity runs 90% behind typical energy levels, marking the latest start since 2014
• NOAA maintains 60% confidence in above-average season with 13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes
• Peak activity months of August-October lie ahead, with warm ocean temperatures continuing to fuel storm development
• Louisiana coastline faces 33% chance of major hurricane landfall this season, above the historical 27% average

2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Update: Slow Start Doesn't Mean Quiet Peak Ahead

Three short-lived storms have formed through early July, but forecasters expect the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season to reach above-average activity when peak months arrive.

LAFAYETTE, La. (KPEL News) - The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season feels quiet right now, but don't think that means it's going to be smooth sailing all the way through.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the season is still expected to produce significant activity, with the most dangerous months starting in August.

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Three Storms Formed Through Early July

Three tropical cyclones have formed, all reaching named storm status: Tropical Storm Andrea on June 24, Barry on June 29, and Chantal, which formed July 4 and made landfall in South Carolina two days later. Chantal brought 40 mph winds and heavy rainfall to the Southeast Coast before weakening.

This is the latest start to an Atlantic hurricane season since 2014, when Hurricane Arthur developed on July 1. The season's energy output shows the difference: according to Colorado State University, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index sits at approximately 1.5 units as of July 6.

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Through the first month, the combined ACE value for all tropical activity is under 0.5 units, roughly 90% behind the usual 2.0+ units expected by this time. The three named storms had brief lifespans and minimal intensity, contributing little energy to the seasonal total.

Wind Shear and Dust Suppress Development

Disruptive winds are tearing apart developing storms, while Saharan dust plumes inhibit hurricane formation by wrapping dry air into developing systems. Water temperatures in the Main Development Region are closer to average and cooler than last year's record warmth.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation creates quiet periods followed by bursts of tropical activity. Current MJO trends suggest conditions may not ramp up significantly until later in July.

June and July are usually quiet months. Brian McNoldy, senior research associate at the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School, said seasonal forecasts for above-average activity can still verify.

Forecasters Maintain Above-Average Predictions

Major forecasting agencies have not changed their spring predictions. NOAA's outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season predicts a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

The agency forecasts 13 to 19 total named storms, with 6-10 becoming hurricanes and 3-5 reaching major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher). NOAA has 70% confidence in these ranges.

Colorado State University maintained their prediction in their June update: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes with an ACE index of 155. The team predicts 2025 hurricane activity will be about 125% of the average season from 1991-2020.

The 2025 hurricane season shows characteristics similar to 1996, 1999, 2008, 2011, and 2021, said Phil Klotzbach, senior research scientist at Colorado State University. Those analog seasons ranged from above-average to hyperactive Atlantic hurricane activity.

Ocean Temperatures Support Active Season Forecast

Above-average sea-surface temperatures in the subtropical eastern Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea were a primary factor in forecasters' prediction of nine total hurricanes this year.

When waters in the eastern subtropical Atlantic are warmer than average in late spring, they weaken the subtropical high-pressure system and reduce winds blowing across the tropical Atlantic. These conditions are expected to maintain above-average water temperatures across most of the tropical Atlantic during peak hurricane season.

The season is expected to be above normal because of continued ENSO-neutral conditions, warmer than average ocean temperatures, weak wind shear forecasts, and potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon.

Peak Hurricane Season Begins in August

In August, forecasters focus on the "main development region" — an area stretching from the west coast of Africa across the central tropical Atlantic. This region produces late-season storms and is where some of the strongest hurricanes develop.

Hurricane activity across the basin usually increases around August 20, when Colorado State University rings the hurricane bell to mark the heart of the season. Atlantic hurricane season peaks in mid-September.

July produces one named storm on average. July storms in the Atlantic develop in the shallow Caribbean or Gulf waters, which are warmer this time of year than deeper ocean areas. This can fuel rapid intensification and quick landfall, creating dangerous situations with short warning times.

Louisiana Faces Above-Average Landfall Risk

Colorado State University forecasts a 33% probability of major hurricanes making landfall along the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas, compared to the historical average of 27%.

The entire U.S. coastline faces a 51% chance of major hurricane landfall this season, above the historical 43% average. Northern and eastern portions of the Gulf Coast and the Carolinas face a higher-than-average risk of direct impacts this season.

Rapid Intensification Concerns Continue

Warm water temperatures provide fuel for explosive storm development. Rapid intensification will be a major concern again this year as sea-surface temperatures and ocean heat content across most of the basin are forecast to be well above average.

Climate change is causing hurricanes to produce heavier rainfall and intensify more rapidly than in previous decades, making preparation and early warning systems more important.

Historical Context Shows Slow Starts Can Turn Active

The slow start mirrors 2014, but slow beginnings don't guarantee quiet seasons. In 2004, Tropical Storm Alex didn't form until August 1, yet that year produced five storms that impacted Florida within six weeks, marking one of the most devastating seasons on record.

The 2024 hurricane season produced activity about 130% of average, featuring 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. Hurricanes Helene and Milton combined to cause over 250 fatalities and more than $120 billion in damage across the southeastern United States.

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Technology Concerns for Peak Season

Forecasters face challenges this season. A source of satellite data that hurricane forecasters use to monitor changes in storm intensity is expected to be shut down at the end of July because of cybersecurity concerns. This timing is problematic because the most active part of hurricane season begins in August.

Preparation Time for Louisiana Residents

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season started quietly, but all major forecasting agencies expect above-average activity when peak months arrive. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center will update the 2025 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, before the historical peak of the season.

Warm ocean temperatures, favorable atmospheric patterns, and historical precedent support expectations for increased activity. Louisiana residents should use this current quiet period to finalize hurricane preparations, review evacuation plans, and ensure emergency supplies are ready. Forecasters remind coastal residents that it takes only one storm making landfall to make it an active season for any community.

Hurricane season runs through November 30.