Gulf Weather System Being Watched – What It Means for Louisiana’s Coastline

(KMDL-FM) Residents along the northern Gulf Coast, and in particular Louisiana's vulnerable coastline, are keeping a close eye on reports from the National Hurricane Center about an area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Gulf.

That part of the Gulf, also known as the Bay of Campeche, is an annual area of concern for tropical weather forecasters. Some of the costliest tropical systems to ever affect Louisiana or the Gulf Coast in general formed over that body of water. But forecasters are not suggesting that this system will become one of those dangerous and deadly systems.

Will the Weather System in the Gulf Strengthen into a Tropical Storm or Hurricane?

The "system" we use, that term loosely, is basically a large and broad area of low-pressure. If this system were over a landmass, it would not be that big of a deal. The fact that it is spinning over open water is why forecasters are giving this area of disturbed weather a second, third, and probably many more looks.

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The graphic that you see below gives a good indication of where the area of disturbed weather is located. Because the circulation is so broad, it's difficult to pinpoint a precise center. And the consensus among forecasters is that the system won't ever get to a point where we have a well-defined center of circulation.

nhc.noaa.gov

The forecast for this weathermaker is for it not to become a tropical weathermaker, such as a tropical depression or named storm. The Hurricane Center has listed the probability of that happening at 10% or less over the next seven days. But where there is a concern is later in the forecast period, and that does concern Louisiana and the Louisiana coastline.

Tropical Weather System Will Affect Louisiana's Coastline - Here's How

The thinking is that the area of disturbed weather and abundant tropical moisture will move over eastern Mexico this weekend. The moisture from the system will then spread northward along and over the upper Texas coast into Louisiana.

weather.gov/lch

There is also a frontal system that is expected to move into Louisiana early next week. That frontal system was already being considered as a major rainmaker for Monday and Tuesday of the upcoming week. And forecasters were anticipating the arrival of Gulf moisture ahead of that system.

When Will Tropical Rains Move into Louisiana?

Rain chances are expected to really ramp up late Sunday, but especially on Monday. The threat of heavy tropical downpours should stay in the area through Monday night and Tuesday, with a significant threat of rain remaining in the area as late as Wednesday afternoon.

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So, the bottom line on this system is this. Nothing tropical or too tropical should come of it. The effect on Louisiana's coastline will likely be an increase in winds, rainfall, and wave action, especially later this weekend and into next week.

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And for the rest of the I-10 corridor, heavy rains with tropical downpours should move into the area late Sunday, but more likely Monday and Tuesday.