The a tropical cyclone the warm waters of the tropical Atlantic are a lot like gasoline is to fire. It is fuel. That fuel can ignite fast and be the catalyst for an intense reaction.

Hurricane Joaquin has been spinning over some of the warmest waters in the Atlantic Basin. Warm water and low wind shear are exactly the environment elements that a hurricane needs to strengthen. Joaquin is now a major hurricane.

The latest advisory on the storm showed that its center was lest than 50 miles to the east of the Bahamas. The maximum sustained winds were 120 mph. Hurricane force winds are being felt in the Bahamas at this time as well torrential downpours. The motion of the storm was slowly to the west southwest. A gradual change in that motion is expected by tomorrow but not before the system has moved into the heart of the Bahamas chain.

The forecast track for Joaquin continues to be of major concern for the east coast of the United States. The official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center has the storm tracking just off the Outer Banks of North Carolina early Sunday morning. The storm is expected to continue on a track north toward the New Jersey coast by as early as Tuesday. There is a lot of uncertainty in that forecast.

The latest computer model forecasts have a large area of discrepancy among the more reliable tracking models. Some of the models predict Joaquin will indeed go north toward New Jersey, other models bring the storm into the United States coastline as far south as South Carolina. It is suggested that residents who live along the Atlantic coast from Charleston South Carolina to Boston Massachusetts remain cognizant of changes in the forecast of this storm.


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