A persistent area of disturbed weather off the coast of northern Honduras continues to be monitored by forecasters with the National Hurricane Center. This area of showers and thunderstorms is not that greatly organized at this time.

Forecasters with the Hurricane Center suggest that development of the system into a tropical cyclone will be slow if development occurs at all over the next five days. As of early this morning the best guess from forecasters suggested the system would have about 20% chance of strengthening as it moves northwestward.

The big "if" in the equation is how strong the system might be after it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. The system is expected to emerge early next week in the very warm waters of the Bay of Campeche, also known as the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Conditions over that part of the Gulf could be conducive for strengthening. The big questions remains will the system survive the passage over the land mass of the Yucatan to emerge as anything more than a few showers and thunderstorms? That's what forecasters will be  monitoring for you over the next few days.

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