Tropical Threat for the Gulf Possible Later this Week
Over the weekend two named tropical systems faded from the forecast maps. Tropical Storms Josephine and Kyle both ran their course over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean. Not to be outdone, Mother Nature has two more areas of concern waiting in the wings for tropical forecasters to monitor. One of those systems could affect the Gulf of Mexico by as early as Friday of this week.
The two systems, you see them pictured above, are both tropical waves. Both systems are given a fairly decent probability of growing stronger by forecasters at the National Hurricane Center. The one that's closest to the Caribbean Sea is the one that forecasters believe could move into the Gulf of Mexico by later this week or over the weekend.
Forecasters give that system a 50% probability of becoming a tropical cyclone at some time over the next five days. Right now the system is moving quite rapidly, 20 mph, to the west. This should inhibit development for the next day or so but over time it is expected to slow down and conditions should allow for further strengthening.
Tropical model guidance is very inconclusive at this time but most of the models do show the system getting close to if not entering the Gulf of Mexico at some time over the next five days or so.
The other tropical wave, the one that is closer to Africa, has also been given a decent chance to strengthen. Forecasters say that system has about a 60% probability of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next five days. The track of this system should range a few hundred miles north of the first system. As of now, it does not look as if this system will be a threat for the Gulf of Mexico, at least within the next week.