Tropical weather forecasters are starting to see a trend in model guidance as it relates to an area of disturbed weather now centered over the Bahamas this morning. The data collected from these model runs has prompted the National Hurricane Center to bump up the probability that this area of convection off the east coast of Florida will become a tropical cyclone over the next five days.

The Hurricane Center currently has the probability of the system strengthening into a tropical cyclone at 50% for today and Friday. That probability increases to 70% for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.

The reason?

Forecasters believe atmospheric conditions and water temperatures in the Gulf will be more conducive for tropical development. The problem with a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico is that a storm system has no way out unless its over land. And right now model guidance suggests that "land" could be anywhere from the Louisiana coast to the Big Bend of Florida.

But before you go clean the last loaf of bread off the shelf at Rouses and scream some stockboy because you can't find bottled water, please know this. These forecasts are based on model guidance. That's NOT an official forecast and the models should be used for planning purposes only.

However, If you're into spaghetti models here's what that looks like. One thing I have noticed with my untrained eye is an apparent shift to the left of the track forecast. This shift would put the track of the system much closer to Florida and much further away from Louisiana's coast.

So, there is a potential for this system to not be a player in our forecast at all. Still, we want you to check back with us often over the next few days for the latest official forecast information.

By the way, that burnt orange "x" you see on the graphic above. That might be a concern for interests in the Gulf of Mexico in another ten days or so. So, we'll keep watching that one too.

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