Tropical Threat Becoming More Likely For U.S. Mainland
The fairly sleepy season that has been Hurricane Season 2016 has awakened with a vengeance over the past week or so. Earlier this year the tropical season had spawned a couple of storms that affected Mexico or just simply stayed out in the open water. We are nearing the peak of the hurricane season and this is when Mother Nature is ready for showtime in the tropics.
The system that poses the most plausible threat to the United States mainland,Invest 99,is still just a tropical wave. Hurricane forecasters give this system a 60% probability of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next five days.
The system is expected to move near the island of Hispaniola and into the Southern Bahamas by later this week. A United States Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission is scheduled for later today. This should give forecasters a better idea of the inner workings of this particular system.
Some tropical forecast models bring this system on a track between Florida and Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico by the first part of next week. A definite forecast track is still hard to pinpoint because the storm is not really that organized at this time. Although the current Hurricane Center forecast still projects the system will take more northerly track and perhaps affect the east coast of Florida.
As predicted at strong tropical wave now well off the coast of Africa became a tropical depression and just a few hours later was given the moniker Gaston after becoming the seventh named storm of the season. Tropical Storm Gaston, at the 2 AM advisory by the National Hurricane Center, was moving west northwest at 16 MPH. The maximum winds around the storm 40 MPH which is one mile an hour above the threshold needed to be declared a tropical storm.
Tropical Depression Fiona is continuing to slowly weaken as it makes it's way into the colder waters of the north Atlantic. This system should dissipate within the next few days and become an extra-tropical system of blustery winds and thunderstorms.