Louisiana Rainfall Forecast Updated Ahead of Tropical System

(KMDL-FM) Suppose you live in Crowley, Abbeville, Morgan City, Lafayette, Baton Rouge, New Orleans, or anywhere along the I-10 corridor in south central and southeastern Louisiana. In that case, you are waking up under a Flood Watch this morning.

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No, the heavy rain hasn't really started to fall, but this isn't a case of "if" the rain is coming, it's more of a case of "when" the rain is coming. And naturally, for those of us in low-lying Louisiana, the next question is "how much". As in "how much rain is going to fall over the next few days?

And perhaps an even better question for those along the I-10 corridor and near Louisiana's Gulf Coast would be, "Are we going to get all that rain at one time"? That question is really the one we need to be paying special attention to over the next four to five days.

What Is The Latest on a Tropical System in the Gulf?

The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring an area of deep tropical moisture and an adjacent low-pressure system that is moving off the Florida peninsula this morning and into the northeastern Gulf near the Big Bend of Florida. That system is forecast to keep moving westward through time.

Here's how the tropical models break down the system's projected path.

The Hurricane Center has given this area of disturbed weather a 40% probability of becoming a "tropical cyclone". What that means is it could become a tropical depression, a tropical storm, or a potential tropical storm depending on conditions along the coast.

While we can't say for certain what this system will eventually become, we do know it will bring a lot of rain to the Gulf South between now and Sunday. As of now, the model guidance for rainfall suggests some of the largest accumulations will occur between Jennings and Baton Rouge. But remember, those are model solutions and not official forecasts.

Here's what forecasters with the National Weather Service Office in Lake Charles are thinking as far as rainfall totals go between Thursday and Saturday.

weather.gov/lch

If you'll take special notice of that last bullet point, "A few areas may see double these totals". That could mean a localized rainfall event of eight to twelve inches. Should that happen, there would be implications and a serious risk to life and property.

Besides the long-term total rainfall and the flooding it could produce, there will also be a risk of Flash Flooding in some of the heavier downpours. The National Weather Service and the Weather Prediction Center say a large portion of South Louisiana will be under the gun for an Excessive Rainfall Event.

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An excessive rainfall event occurs when rainfall rates exceed an area's ability to drain the water away in a timely manner. For those who are familiar with Ambassador Caffery Parkway in Lafayette, that's a picture of Ambassador Caffery Parkway above; you've seen what a lot of rain in a short period of time can do to that roadway. Those kinds of rainfall events will be possible, if not likely, across South Louisiana between now and Saturday.

weather.gov/lch

As you can see, the focus for the heavy rain in a short period of time covers much of Louisiana's "Acadiana Region". That includes the cities of Lafayette, Crowley, New Iberia, St Martinville, Breaux Bridge, and Opelousas.

The time frame for the rain's arrival will be determined by your physical location. If you're in southeastern Louisiana, say in the New Orleans area, first of all, you're dealing with a Heat Advisory for today. The showers and storms will start arriving in your area later this afternoon and evening.

(Photo by Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

For Baton Rouge and Lafayette, the arrival of the inclement weather should begin in the early morning hours of Thursday, with a rain threat building as the day wears on. Lake Charles, you will see the rainfall arriving during the middle of the day on Thursday, with heavier showers moving into the area Thursday night and Friday.

This is a developing weather situation and is subject to change quickly, so do check back with us often and make sure you have our station App to get the latest weather information, including life-saving details on watches and warnings that could be issued for your area.