Tropical System Likely to Strengthen – Will It Affect the Gulf?

(KMDL-FM) The tropical Atlantic Basin is coming alive as we move into the middle of August. That's not a surprise for seasoned tropical weather watchers who make their homes along Louisiana's coast in Vermilion, Terrebonne, St. Mary, and Cameron Parishes.

The same could be said for Texas residents who live in Orange, Jefferson, Galveston, or Brazoria Counties, too. We do expect the Gulf to get a little wild from mid-August through September and finally settle back down again in mid-October. That's why they call this time of the year "Prime Time".

When Is The Peak Of Hurricane Season in the Atlantic Basin?

It all coincides with the peak of the tropical season, which on your calendar is September 10th. Here we are a full month ahead of that date, and forecasters with the National Hurricane Center have their eyes on a system that could have already earned a name by the time you read this story.

The area of most concern is the area that is marked in red. It's of most concern because it has the strongest potential to strengthen, and it is currently on a track that carries it toward the coastal United States. Should the storm strengthen and earn a name it would be Erin, the fifth named storm of this tropical season.

READ MORE: Probability of a Hurricane Landfall in Your Parish 2025

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Over the past several days, several of the more reliable forecast models have pushed this system further to the west than the current thinking suggests. If that scenario came to fruition, then the system could become a major issue for interests in the Gulf. However, many of the models now suggest a much different scenario.

Based on the model projections, that appears to be very good news for Louisiana, Texas, and the rest of the Gulf Coast. It also appears as though the storm system will make a northerly turn before it affects the Eastern Seaboard directly. That would be a good thing as well.

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Why Are Hurricane Forecasters Watching The Gulf This Week?

But just so you don't run out of things to worry about if you look at the Water Vapor Imagery from the Gulf this morning, you can see a large area of moisture just off the west coast of Florida. This area appears to be migrating westward. Also, there appears to be a "spin" very near this area of moisture.

This area of moisture is drifting westward and is the catalyst for some of the heavier-than-usual rainfall forecasts that much of the Northern Gulf will experience this week. Is it possible this could be our next area of concern?

Possible, but not likely, at least not right now. The consensus appears to be that this will bring a threat of flooding rains to the Gulf South but not much more. Still, it is August, and this is the Gulf, and it is still in the heart of hurricane season. So, we'll keep watching.