Tropical Models Suggest Gulf Storm Labor Day Weekend

(KMDL-FM) Labor Day weekend is a scant two weeks and some change away. The peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season is going to coincide with Louisiana's Labor Day weekend almost exactly. Although Labor Day is September 8th and the peak of the Atlantic season is September 10th.

Unfortunately, the current state of the tropics suggests that Louisiana's Labor Day weekend might be spent dealing with or at least contemplating a tropical cyclone in the Gulf. Here are the particulars on what forecasters are seeing and suggesting for the next few weeks, as far as the tropics are concerned.

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Hurricane Erin has already reached Category 5 status and is now classified as a Category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The current prognostication for the path of Hurricane Erin suggests a track between Bermuda to the east and the Outer Banks of North Carolina to the west. Tropical storm watches have been posted for the Carolina coast as of this morning.

What is the Threat to the Northern Gulf From Hurricane Erin?

The main threat from Erin will be waves and water action along the beaches of the Eastern Seaboard. This could make for dangerous rip currents on those East Coast beaches through the Labor Day Weekend.

Behind Erin on a very similar track is another tropical wave. This wave has been given a 60% probability of strengthening into a tropical cyclone. If it does earn a name, it could become Fernand. The model solutions on the track of this system are very close to what the track projections are for Hurricane Erin.

Of course, there are still a lot of uncertainties with this system. Forecasters will have a better idea of the size, scope, and track of this system as we move through time. Should the storm develop under the model solutions, this system (the one shaded in orange on the graphic below) could be an issue for the Carolina Coast in some way before the end of August.

Finally, the tropical wave that has just been added to the National Hurricane Center's watch list (that's the area shaded in yellow in the above graphic) is currently located off the west coast of Africa. The wave has been given a 30% chance to strengthen over time.

The location of the system is a little lower in latitude than where Hurricane Erin and the other tropical wave formed. This might mean the system could stay in the lower latitudes as it makes its way across the Atlantic. Should that happen, based on model guidance, it could become an issue for the northern Gulf Coast just about the time Labor Day Weekend rolls around.

Here's where we give you the disclaimer: this is a model solution and not an official forecast. The dynamics of this system can and will change over time. Forecast models when they first started picking up what is now Hurricane Erin had that system moving in the Gulf, so a lot can and will change in the coming two weeks.

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Forecast Models Suggest a Significant Storm in the Gulf Labor Day Weekend

Here is where the Global Forecast System model has the system located on or about September 3rd. Remember, this is a model and not an official forecast. And yes, the model solution does put a significant tropical weather system in the Gulf south of Louisiana's coast.

If anything, we hope this will serve as a reminder that Hurricane Season is far from over and we've still got a solid six to eight weeks of being vigilant before the season starts to cool off for the fall.

In the meantime, you could check on a few things just for your peace of mind. I think I would crank my generator and make sure it will run if and when you need it. I would also do a quick scan of my hurricane kit or hurricane box. You'll want to make sure your supplies haven't expired and that you have a manual can opener.