Hurricane Center Now Monitoring System in the Gulf

(KMDL-FM) As we noted in our narrative from yesterday regarding weather scenarios for southern Louisiana and southeastern Texas, we mentioned there appeared to be a "spin" in the atmosphere that seemed to have an abundance of moisture surrounding it. In the water vapor satellite image below, you can make out the "band of moisture," which is the green shaded area you see over southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi.

To us, and other observers in Cameron, Calcasieu, Vermilion, and Lafayette Parishes in Louisiana, as well as weather watchers in Orange, Galveston, and Brazoria County, Texas, the system certainly looked like the kind of atmospheric anomaly the National Hurricane Center would be interested in tracking.

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It turns out they are. And it turns out, fortunately for the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast, that the system the Hurricane Center is now monitoring does not appear to have much of a chance to get any stronger than it currently is.

What Is the National Hurricane Center Currently Monitoring in the Gulf?

Before we get too far ahead in telling you what this system might become, let's bring you up to speed on what it currently is. The Hurricane Center describes the area of concern just off Louisiana's coast as a "surface trough," which is where we get the spin.

It is also described as a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The fact that the system is physically located so close to the coast works to our advantage when strengthening is concerned. Because of the proximity to land, forecasters don't see this system getting much stronger.

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What Are Coastal Texas and Louisiana's Concerns about the System in the Gulf?

Where we do have concerns is in the form of excessive rainfall. No, this doesn't appear to be a Super Soaker event where a lot of areas see a lot of high rainfall totals. Instead, the rain events from this system will be more along the lines of tropical downpours that dump several inches of rain over a short period of time.

These kinds of excessive rainfall events will be common across the I-10 corridor this afternoon and during the day on Wednesday. Rain chances will remain above normal for Thursday and Friday, with the weekend bringing a return to more typical conditions, which include only a slight risk of afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Erin formed yesterday; it is expected to strengthen and could become the season's first major hurricane. The current track forecast for Erin does not bring the system into the Gulf or anywhere close to the Texas and Louisiana coastlines. Let's hope that trend continues and the storm remains out at sea.