What to Know About Asteroid 2024 YR4 Possibly Hitting Earth in 2032

In December of 2024, Astrologists discovered a new asteroid, now named Asteroid 2024 YR4.

While there's still a lot to learn about Asteroid 2024 YR4, as of now astronomers the size of the asteroid at between 130 and 330 feet long.

Astronomers are currently estimating the chance of impact with Asteroid 2024 YR4 at 1 in 83.

This far out, much can change when it comes to the potential impact and danger of Asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth, so let's take a look at what is known at this point...

What Is The Torino Scale?

The Torino Scale is the method used to categorize the danger of "near-Earth objects (NEOs) such as asteroids and comets" according to Wikipedia.com.

Torino Scale ratings are determined based on impact probability on a scale of 0 to 10.

Here is the meaning of the ratings of the Torino Scale -

0 (White) - No Hazard

1 (Green) - Normal

2,3,4 (Yellow) - Meriting Attention By Astronomers

5,6,7 (Orange) - Threatening

8,9,10 (Red) - Certain Collision

So, where is Asteroid 2024 YR4 currently ranked on the Torino Scale?

From nytimes.com -

"2024 YR4 currently sits at 3: a close encounter, less than a decade away, meriting attention by astronomers, one that has a chance of 1 percent or greater of a collision capable of localized destruction.

This is the second-highest rating ever given to an asteroid. Only Apophis, an asteroid once thought to be a threat, briefly reached a 4. But as we learned more about Apophis, we found it had no chance of striking Earth for at least a century."

Should We Be Concerned About 2024 YR4 Hitting Earth?

Traditionally, what normally happens is that the impact odds usually go down to zero as more observations and information is known about an asteroid.

As of now, this trend is expected to follow suit with Asteroid 2024 YR4, but only time will tell.

Astronomers will have the chance to gather better data on Asteroid 2024 YR4 during a December, 2028 flyby of the asteroid.

Until that 2028 flyby, the possibility of a 2032 impact can't be ruled out, but don't panic.

Dr. Andy Rivkin from Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory tells the nytimes.com “We expect the impact probability to go to zero rather than 100 percent. But it may take a few years before we get the data to show that.”

So, as of now, Asteroid 2024 YRK is being predicted to likely miss colliding with Earth in 2032, but Astronomers won't have a better prediction in the 2028 flyby.
You can read more about Asteroid 2024 YR4 over at nytimes.com.