Another Tropical Threat in the Gulf? Hurricane Center Monitoring

(KMDL-FM) Yesterday, forecasters with the National Hurricane Center were focusing attention on a tropical wave centered just off the Louisiana coast in the northern Gulf. The potential for that system to develop into a tropical cyclone has dissipated; however, forecasters say the Gulf is not out of play completely, as there is now another area of concern that forecasters want to keep an eye on.

If you recall yesterday, the area of focus was near New Orleans, and this morning the focus has shifted much further south and much further west to the western Caribbean, the Yucatan of Mexico, and the Bay of Campeche.

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As you can see in the graphic from the Hurricane Center, forecasters believe an area of disturbed weather in the form of a tropical wave will move out of the Caribbean, across the Yucatan, and in a few days will be centered over the southwestern Gulf.

Is The Tropical System in the Gulf Expected to Strengthen?

Forecasters do not anticipate rapid development of this system over the next 24 hours, as it will be moving across the Yucatan Peninsula. However, once the system is again situated over water, the possibility for strengthening exists.

Many of the reliable tropical forecast models are not showing this system developing into a major weather event. As it looks now, the system, should it advance northward, would only be a rainmaker for the western and northwestern Gulf Coast, but even that is an uncertainty at this time.

Why Have the Tropics Suddenly Become More Active?

We are at the time of the year when almost any thunderstorm that develops over the Gulf or the Caribbean is going to get some attention from the Hurricane Center. The peak of the Hurricane Season is September 10th. And the long-range forecasts not only show Tropical Storm Erin strengthening into a major hurricane.

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But later in the model run, on or about August 27th, there could be another tropical system threatening the southeastern coast of the United States. Of course, that is a model projection and not an official forecast.

What Is South Louisiana and Coastal Texas' Biggest Weather Threat Today?

There is a marginal risk for excessive rain across South Louisiana and the Upper Texas Coast. Most of the showers and thunderstorms will form during the afternoon and early evening hours. The biggest concern from these storms will be heavy rain over a short period of time. This could cause what the National Weather Service calls "nuisance" street flooding.

Rain chances across the area will be between 50% and 70% today and tomorrow, with a slight decrease in the threat of rain for later in the week and the weekend.