Second Half Of Hurricane Season Might Be More Active Than Normal
There are a lot of things that have to happen for an area of thunderstorms to develop into a hurricane. Sometimes it's an atmospheric or terrestrial event that happens thousands of miles away that is the difference between a quiet October and an October that you'll never forget.
The 2017 Hurricane Season has already produced 13 named systems. We hit the statistical peak of the hurricane season about two weeks ago on September 10th. You'd think forecasters would be suggesting that the tropics would be settling down instead of heating up.
La Nina, a weather phenomenon that occurs when Pacific Ocean waters are cooler than normal, appears to be setting up for the fall. The cooler water temperatures over the Pacific create less verticle wind shear over the Gulf of Mexico and the tropical Atlantic. This lack of wind shear usually means more favorable conditions for tropical development.
Forecasters are now observing La Nina as the season shifts into October. This is also the time in hurricane season when storm formation points shift to the west from the Cape Verde Islands. Tropical systems in October are more likely to form in Gulf of Mexico or the Caribbean Sea.
What this means for coastal Louisiana is that a system that forms in the nearby waters might have a better than normal chance to strengthen because of the lack of wind shear. That means that almost any weather system, cold front, low-pressure system, or area of robust thunderstorms will need to be monitored rather closely.
Let us hope that Mother Nature has done her damage for the season and will now relax and enjoy the change of seasons quietly.