Tropical Update – Don’t Take Your Eyes Off the Gulf Just Yet
Right now the attention of the meteorological world is focused on Hurricane Sally. It should be. That storm, while not the most powerful as far as wind speeds go, has been a prodigious rainmaker as it moves very slowly across the coast near Gulf Shores Alabama this morning.
However, if I could draw your attention to the southwestern part of the Gulf of Mexico for just a moment. Yes, that's the Bay of Campeche, and yes that is an area of disturbed weather that has moved around the western perimeter of the Gulf while we were all watching Sally become a hurricane.
While that area of showers and thunderstorms hasn't developed, it hasn't dissipated either. Now, some forecast models are suggesting that the system could begin to get better organized over those very warm waters of the southwestern Gulf.
The National Hurricane Center has given this system a 40% chance of development over the next five days. Should that system develop it could be quite problematic. I mean, once a system is in the Gulf of Mexico it's really hard for it not to affect a landmass.
Just to be clear, there is no specific official forecast that suggests this system will develop into a named weather system. However, model guidance suggests that we should make you aware of that possibility. As they say in hurricane country, prepare for the worst and hope for the best. I know I will be.