That persistent area of disturbed weather slowly rotating around a broad area of low pressure just of Honduras is now likely to become a tropical cyclone. Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center are now giving this area of disturbed weather a 60% probability of strengthening into a tropical depression or tropical storm by early next week.

Now that we know we could be looking at a tropical entity in the Gulf of Mexico next week the next obvious question is where is the system most likely to go? There is a pretty strong consensus among tropical models that the system will track into the central Gulf of Mexico almost directly south of Louisiana's coastline.

What happens after that and just how strong the system may or may not become remain the mystery that only time can answer. The European Model brings the system very close to Louisiana's southeastern coast by late Tuesday or Wednesday. Of course, this is only one model solution and not an official forecast.

What we do know is that there is a lot of time between now and the middle of next week. That means you'll want to stay close to us over the weekend for the latest forecasts and projections and then next week we should have a much better idea of what kind of system we'll be looking at and a better idea on its ultimate track.


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