Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center are not sounding any alarms just yet but they do say an area of disturbed weather south of Louisiana in the Gulf of Mexico is showing signs of better organization. As of now, the Hurricane Center is giving this system a 40% probability of becoming a tropical cyclone before the Fourth of July.

The graphic above is from the Hurricane Center's five-day outlook. As you can see, forecasters don't think the broad area of low pressure will be moving out of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico anytime soon. That could be problematic.

Sea surface temperatures in the Gulf are slightly higher than normal for this time of year. Tropical systems use the energy from the warm water to strengthen and develop but because of the atmospheric environment around this system, we should not see a rapid intensification.

What we will most likely see is an uptick in rain chances and rainfall rates in some of the storms that are likely to move over southern Louisiana and southeast Texas between now and the July Fourth holiday.

No, it does not look as if this will be a repeat of Tropical Storm Allison. If you recall that storm system basically camped out over our part of the world back in 2001 and was responsible for some of the worst flooding that the area has seen except for maybe the floods of 2016.

KATC Chief Meteorologist, and one of the most talented tropical forecasters in the country, Rob Perillo posted on the TV station's website that rainfall from the system will range from over three inches in southeast Texas to a little over two inches in southwest Louisiana. Of course, that's a forecast model projection and not an actual forecast.

Rob Perillo/
Rob Perillo/

But I do think Rob is going to absolutely correct in his prognosis on this particular weather system. It's going to be a rainmaker and perhaps a flash flood maker around some of the heavier downpours.

Meanwhile rain chances across the area today will be elevated above the normal 20% to 30% chance of airmass or pop-up showers and storms. The National Weather Service Office in Lake Charles is suggesting a rain threat of 70% today and Thursday with even higher chances forecast for Friday.

By the way, even though rain chances will be elevated this weekend it won't be raining all the time. So, fireworks shows and celebrations for July the Fourth might have to be delayed but I do think we'll be able to get most of them in despite the chance of rain.

But, that's what you get during summers in the South, at least we have some good snacking options.

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