How Much Did Lafayette Parish Shift Toward Democrats in the 2026 Senate Race?

LAFAYETTE, La. — Lafayette Parish gave Republican Julia Letlow a 10-point win in Tuesday’s U.S. Senate race, 55.2-44.8. Two years ago, Donald Trump carried the parish by 31, meaning a 21-point shift toward Davis.

Letlow won statewide, 50.9-49.1, by about 26,000 votes with 99% of the expected vote counted. Trump won Louisiana by 22 points in 2024. The statewide shift toward Democrats measured just over 20 points, so Lafayette moved at the pace of the state.

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Lafayette Parish by the Numbers

Letlow received 43,837 votes in Lafayette Parish to 35,617 for Davis. Kamala Harris received 37,170 votes in the parish in the 2024 presidential race. Davis sits 1,553 votes short of that total, and midterm turnout normally runs below presidential turnout.

Among Louisiana’s 64 parishes, Lafayette’s 21-point shift ranked 20th. Shifts statewide ran from 10 points in Orleans Parish to 29 points in St. Bernard Parish.

Every Acadiana Parish Moved Toward Davis

Trump carried all eight of these parishes in 2024: Lafayette, Acadia, Evangeline, Iberia, St. Landry, St. Martin, St. Mary and Vermilion. Davis carried one of them. St. Landry Parish went for Davis, 51.5-48.5, after Trump won it by nearly 19 points.

Evangeline Parish moved the most, 28 points, the second-largest shift in the state. Letlow won it by 21 points after Trump carried it by 49. Vermilion Parish moved 20 points. St. Martin, St. Mary, and Iberia parishes each moved about 19. Acadia Parish moved 16 and gave Letlow her largest margin among the eight, 48 points.

Averaged evenly across the eight parishes, the shift was 20.3 points, matching the statewide figure of 20.25. Together they gave Letlow 58.5% of the vote, a 17-point margin compared with her 2-point margin statewide. Acadiana moved at the same rate as the state and still voted about 15 points more Republican than Louisiana as a whole.

What the Exit Poll Says About Why

The exit poll surveyed voters across Louisiana, so it cannot show how Lafayette Parish voters answered. It does show what moved the state, and Lafayette moved with it.

Trump’s job approval stood at 46 percent among Louisiana voters, with 54 percent disapproving. Letlow won 94 percent of the approvers and 14 percent of the disapprovers.

On household finances, 74 percent rated the economy “not so good” or “poor,” and 45 percent said their family’s finances are worse than two years ago. Seventy-nine percent reported that inflation caused their household hardship. Fifty-four percent said higher prices come more from Trump’s policies than from outside factors, and 85 percent of that group voted for Davis.

Eighty-eight percent were concerned about gas and diesel prices, including 62 percent who were very concerned. Those very concerned voters went for Davis, 61 percent to 39 percent. On Iran, 52 percent called the U.S. military action the wrong decision, and 76 percent rated the war a crucial or major factor in their vote for Congress.

Independents went for Davis, 60-40. Voters who do not identify as MAGA, two-thirds of the electorate, went for him 72-28. Ten percent of voters who backed Trump in 2024 voted for Davis. The exit poll’s Cajun Country region, 24 percent of its sample, still favored Letlow 58-42, a wider margin than her statewide win.

The shift also reflects who showed up. Black voters made up 34 percent of early ballots statewide, a midterm record for Louisiana. Parish-level turnout by race has not been published, so the split between new voters and changed minds in Lafayette Parish cannot yet be measured.

What Each Side Takes From It

Republicans held 91 percent of their own voters and won the voters who named immigration as their top issue, 92-8. They also led Democrats in Louisiana on handling immigration, 52-33, and the economy, 47-33.

Her support was thinner at the edges of that coalition. Letlow did not take part in a public debate with Davis during the campaign. Pollster John Couvillon cautioned before Election Day that 10-20 of Republican early voters had defected to Davis, and Davis won 9 percent of Republicans in the exit poll.

Democrats can claim the 20-point swing, but the exit poll shows no surge of goodwill toward the party itself. Louisiana voters rated the Democratic Party 41 percent favorable and 59 percent unfavorable, worse than the 49-51 rating for Republicans.

Lafayette Parish still voted Republican by 10 points. Parish counts are unofficial until the Secretary of State certifies them, and exit poll figures are preliminary estimates that can be adjusted.

Want to know what Louisiana looked like in 2024? Here's the most conservative cities from two years ago.