Will it Ever Rain Again in Louisiana? This Week’s Best Chance

The past few days of splendid Autumn weather has certainly been appreciated across Louisiana. It's been perfect for football games, festivals, trick-or-treating, and all the activities we love to do during the season when the leaves change. And while that's been nice it's come with a price. As you can see, the drought in Louisiana is still firmly in place.

The lack of moisture has meant burn bans in many parishes and the threat of wildfire from a single spark is certainly on the minds of state fire officials as well as the local departments that would be called out to battle such blazes should the dry vegetation be exposed to an ignition source.

But there does appear to be good news on the horizon. Not only in the short term but in the long term too as forecasters look into their science supported crystal balls and tell us that the pendulum might be swinging more in the direction of more rain as opposed to conditions that will make Louisiana's drought even worse.

That graphic from the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Lake Charles suggests that Louisiana's precipitation potential will be slightly above normal for the next eight to ten days. And it does appear as if one of our better chances for rain and at least a dent in the drought will come later this week.

A cold front currently entering the western section of the country is expected to push eastward and be a part of Louisiana's forecast by later this week. The front is not only expected bring cooler temperatures but for the first time in a long time a significant chance of significant precipitation.

For those who are visual learners, the graphic below should help explain.

Between Thursday and Saturday most of Southern Louisiana will have at least a 70% probability to receive more than half an inch of rain. Rainfall amounts could be higher in some locales but it does appear as though the late week cold front will do a lot more than settle the dust. No, it won't break the drought but it will make conditions better.

What is the Timing on Louisiana's Latest Rain Threat?

Based on mode guidance forecasters expect rain to move into Louisiana late in the day on Thursday. Much the day on Friday will be cloudy with showers. The rain will subside and move out of the area during the day on Saturday. That's the timing and the thinking right now. Of course, this is subject to change and the forecast will be fine-tuned as we move through the week.

This could be problematic for fans of the LHSAA and high school football in Louisiana. The state football playoffs begin next week and we'd certainly hate to see weather play a part in the story but that is something that coaches and teams prepare for. But it does appear as those many of the games could be played in wet conditions. 

As of now, the Storm Prediction Center is not suggesting that this frontal system will bring a threat of severe storms to the area but we can't rule out at least one or two storms with gusty winds, frequent lighting, and gusty winds.

We also don't expect freezing temperatures behind this frontal system when it passes but the long-range forecasts are showing those frosty drops won't be too far behind, perhaps just in time for Turkey on Thanksgiving and Black Friday Shopping the day after.