Soaking Rains Forecast for Louisiana This Weekend – Rainfall Totals Revealed

(KMDL-FM) Forecasters with the National Weather Service, on local television, and online have been debating not the fact that it is going to rain across South Louisiana, but more so how much it will rain across the region.

Forecast models have offered different solutions over the past few days, but it looks like we have a much better idea of when and how much rain will fall.

Heather Diehl, Getty Images

The discrepancies in the outlook stem from two significant weather events. First, we have an approaching cold front. Frontal systems normally spark off showers and storms as they pass. The second ingredient is an abundance of tropical moisture from the remnants of Pacific Hurricane Polo.

Will It Be Raining All The Time This Weekend?

The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Lake Charles summed it up nicely: "It won't rain all day everywhere. There will be breaks". So, not a total washout for today, Saturday, and Sunday, but just enough uncertainty to really make you question your plans.

READ MORE: Reassessing The Hurricane Threat for Acadiana in 2026

The graphic below, courtesy of the NWS Forecast Office in Lake Charles, shows two scenarios for rainfall totals. The one on the left is the most likely scenario. The one on the right, the more frightening one, is a depiction of the worst-case scenario regarding rainfall totals.

weather.gov/lch

Remember, these are rainfall projections from Friday through Sunday night. It does appear as though the risk of more significant rainfall totals will be closer to the coast and more likely to occur in parts of the state that are south and east of Acadiana.

But remember, a forecast fluctuation of just 50 miles can be the difference between a little rain and needing to find sandbags. Speaking of sandbags, the flood risk from this weekend's weather event will be more localized than widespread.

What we mean by that is this: specific areas could get a heavy downpour over a short period of time, inundating municipal drainage systems for a few hours. This kind of street flooding or nuisance flooding will be common during some of the heavier showers and storms.

weather.gov/lch

Unfortunately, for a lot of events this weekend, the Louisiana Cattle Festival in Abbeville and Homecoming at the University of Louisiana will likely have to celebrate in the rain or make adjustments to the schedule of events.

But remember, there will be breaks in the showers and thundershowers, so the rain could be very short-lived; however, the danger of lightning could be present. We know that at sporting events, precautions are in place; however, in a festival situation, you could have to rely on your own good judgement.

When Will it Actually Feel Like Fall in South Louisiana? Sooner Than You Think

The silver lining in all of the wet weather is that next week, once the showers move out on Monday, we will have some "Chamber of Commerce" weather. The morning temperatures will be on the cool side of comfortable, and the afternoon temperatures will be just warm enough.

READ MORE: Line Up and Schedule for Louisiana Cattle Festival This Weekend

That should bode well for next weekend's big festival, Festivals Acadiens et Creoles in Lafayette and the World Championship Gumbo Cookoff in New Iberia. Those are just two events this month you shouldn't miss. Here are some others.