Hurricane Center Monitoring The Gulf for Tropical Development
(KMDL-FM) Last week, the forecasters at the National Hurricane Center had their hands full with a weak but stubborn system that slowly moved from east to west across the Florida Peninsula and into the northern Gulf. That meant it was a wet week from New Orleans to Morgan City to Lake Charles in Louisiana.
From there, the wet weather woes continued westward toward Galveston, Houston, and Beaumont in Texas. And while the map with the graphic featured below might look like it's from last week, it's not. It's currently what's brewing or about to be brewing just off the Texas and Louisiana coastline.
This week, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring a similar scenario, oddly enough, involving some of the same moisture that affected the Gulf earlier.
And once again, the potential for tropical development is prevalent, so the Hurricane Center is monitoring an area very close to the Louisiana and Texas coastlines for potential development over the next seven days.
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The fact that there could be potential tropical troubles in the northern Gulf is really no surprise this week. Last week, models were predicting the area of moisture that brought heavy rains for the early part of last week would then be circling back and passing over the area again this week.
Tropical Threat for Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast This Week
It appears as though the greatest threat from this potential tropical trouble spot will once again be rain. The National Hurricane Center is only giving the system a 10% chance of strengthening over the next seven days. However, almost every forecast outlet along the northern and northwestern Gulf is ramping up rain chances beginning tomorrow.
Today's issue for Louisiana and southeastern Texas will be heat. There are heat advisories and warnings posted from the coasts of Louisiana and Texas straight up the Mississippi River Valley to Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota. Dangerous heat indices of 105 to 110 degrees will be common. That changes for tomorrow's forecast.
Rain chances across Louisiana will spike significantly on Thursday and will remain high through Friday and the weekend. As of now, rainfall totals for southern Louisiana do not look to be that excessive.
How Much Rain is Forecast for the Louisiana and Texas Coast This Week?
However, those rainfall totals could change dramatically depending on the actual track of the storm system in the Gulf. As of now, the current guidance suggests the heaviest rainfall will remain offshore.
However, if the system tracks a little closer to the coast, those rainfall totals could be an inch to two inches higher than officially forecast at this time. The graphic below from the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Lake Charles illustrates the forecast scenario and the "worst case" scenario. As you can see, a few miles would make a huge difference in our rainfall totals.
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And while current model guidance doesn't suggest this storm system will be anything more than a rainmaker, we still have more than 2/3rds of the Hurricane Season to navigate. Have you thought about the probabilities of a tropical system making landfall near where you live?
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