The tropical Atlantic Basin is very busy at this moment. Some of the long-range tropical forecast models suggest that it will be busy through the end of September too. But we've got tropical troubles that are certainly close at hand we need to take a look at.

For the Gulf of Mexico, forecasters have once again increased the probability that an area of disturbed weather just off the Yucatan Peninsula will move into the southwest Gulf of Mexico and strengthen. Most prognostications keep the system at a tropical depression, at least for now.

The forecast track of this potential tropical trouble spot slides the system very close to the south-central Texas Gulf Coast. Just how strong the system may or may not be is still up in the air. Some of the models do develop this system into a minimal tropical storm. Should it earn a name it would be called Joyce.

Most forecasters believe this system's greatest effect on weather for Texas and South Louisiana will be an increase in shower activity. Although most forecast models suggest that Texas will see a significantly larger amount of rainfall compared to Louisiana.

Hurricane Florence is a dangerous storm. Already watches and warnings have been put in place along the coast of North and South Carolina. As of now the Category 4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale is expected to make landfall very near to the border of the two states.

Storm surge projections suggest a wall of water at least 12 feet or higher inundating the coast just to the right of the eye of the storm when it crosses the coast.  There is also the threat for some very heavy rainfall in the area. Some forecast models suggest more than two feet of rain before Florence eventually exits the area.

As of the latest advisory on Hurricane Florence maximum sustained winds were 140 miles an hour with higher gusts. The general motion of the storm was to the west-northwest at 17 miles per hour. According to the National  Hurricane Center, the track of Florence should bring the center of circulation onshore sometime during the day Friday.


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