Hurricane Gabrielle Forms – Hurricane Center Watching Two Other Systems

(KMDL-FM) It's almost as if Mother Nature has been listening to our comments about "how quiet the tropics have been" in recent weeks. Evidently, Ma Nature is not amused at our "disrespect". Maybe that's why over the weekend, the tropical Atlantic basin found itself with a strengthening hurricane and two other tropical waves that are poised to grow stronger.

Hurricane Gabrielle formed over the weekend, and that was not unexpected. The National Hurricane Center had been watching the system since it rolled off the coast of Africa as a tropical wave last week. The prognosis had always been that the system would spawn a named storm, and now we have Gabrielle.

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The statistics on Gabrielle are not that impressive. The storm is a Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, as of the 11 pm advisory. Maximum sustained winds were noted to be 75mph, which puts the system just barely above the hurricane threshold of 74 mph.

What Is The Forecast Track for Hurricane Gabrielle?

The forecast track for Hurricane Gabrielle suggests the system will move just to the east of Bermuda and then strengthen into a major hurricane. That status as a major hurricane should be short-lived as the system is forecast to move further to the north and east and eventually dissipate over the colder waters of the North Atlantic.

Behind Gabrielle are two more impressive tropical waves. The system that is indicated with the orange shading above has a 60% probability of strengthening into a tropical cyclone. The system that is indicated by the yellow shading has only a 30% chance of strengthening. But that "yellow system" does appear to show a track that brings it uncomfortably close to the U.S. coastline.

Is There a Tropical Threat This Week for The Gulf?

Over the past seven days, we've been monitoring the tropical model runs, and several of them have indicated that the Gulf could either receive one of these tropical waves or have a system form on its own. That is looking less likely now because the weather pattern for Louisiana and the Gulf South is changing.

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We are moving into our fall pattern, which means that cold fronts will start moving across the country and through the area. Perhaps the frontal system that is forecast to impact Louisiana later this week is the catalyst that is pushing both of these tropical waves off to the east and away from the Gulf?

For whatever reason, we will take it. And we'll also be taking a bit more rain along the I-10 corridor this week with that approaching frontal system. So keep that in mind.