It has been more than a month since we have been able to proclaim that there are no named tropical systems currently active in the Atlantic Basin. August and September have been very busy in the tropics but as right now things are rather quiet.

It won't stay quiet because history suggests that at least two more named systems will form in the tropical Atlantic before Halloween. Unfortunately, the hot spots for tropical formation are fairly close, at least in tropical terms, to the United States mainland.

Those potential hot spots are the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. RIght now forecasters are watching an area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean. This broad area of low pressure is not in the best environment for development. However, over the next five days, there is at least some potential for tropical development.

Right now the National Hurricane Center has given this weather system a very slight 20% probability of strengthening into a tropical cyclone over the next five days. Looking further down the road forecasters are predicting a cold front to push through the area by the middle of next week. This should push any potential tropical troubles out to sea and bring much cooler weather to the area.