The European forecast model was the first to pick up on a potential trouble spot of disturbed weather moving into the Gulf of Mexico this week. Now the National Hurricane Center is observing and advising coastal residents on what could make for a rather soggy Memorial Day holiday weekend.

Currently, a broad area of low pressure is centered over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This area of convection and atmospheric rotation is forecast to slide slowly to the north and northwest over the next several days. By this weekend the system could be significantly stronger and sitting just south of the Louisiana coastline.

The National Hurricane Center is giving this area of disturbed weather a 40% probability of strengthening into a tropical depression or tropical storm. The bottom line is depending on the track of this system you could be making all of your tax-free hurricane purchases in a tropical downpour over the weekend.